A COVID-19 Thermometer?

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Mister Sum is ready for something new. Looking at data like the numbers of infected and killed per week has led him to come up with an instrument that provides a reasonable representation of COVID medical reality per country. That would be a small list by country with the week number in which COVID entered the jurisdiction (wk 1), the week number in which the effects of first measures became noticeable (wk x), the largest number of new infections (xmax) and the week in which this was measured (wk max), the number of new infections (#nw) measured in the week viewed (wk nw) together with the corresponding curve or line (curve nw – upward, downward or tilting / constant). For the seven jurisdictions, the thermometer’s measures for week 30 would look like this in a table:

Countrywk 1wk x#maxwk max#nwwk nwcurve nw
PRCwk 0wk 533.000wk 7128wk 30constant
USAwk 9wk 14513.000wk 30513.000wk 30up
Fwk 9wk 1430.800wk 146.000wk 30up
UKwk 9wk 1532.500wk 154.600wk 30constant
NLwk9wk 147.350wk 151.130wk 30up
BRwk 10wk 16301.000wk 30301.000wk 30up
Globalwk 0wk 51.760.000wk 301.760.000wk 30up
The thermometer’s readings for week 30

Reading this thermometer is quite easy, if the number of new contaminations is significantly less than it once was and the curve is pointing down or remains the same, the pandemic is under control, otherwise not.

This leads to what we already knew. Control over the pandemic is not an exclusively medical issue. What we expect from our jurisdictions when it comes to contributing to and achieving safety, money, happiness and knowledge also plays a role. It appears that those expectations are different in (1) the PRC, (2) the USA & Brazil and (3) Europe.